The Week of March 16–20, 2026

Published: 22 March 2026

The U.S. stock market declined for a fourth consecutive week as conflict in the Middle East continued and the Federal Reserve announced no rate change.  The market experienced a broad-based sell-off and the Russell 2000 moved into correction territory. 

Sector Performance

The market saw a sharp rotation as investors fled growth and cyclical sectors for defensive havens. 

  • Energy was an outlier and top performer, gaining as global oil prices (Brent crude) rose nearly 9% for the week to approximately $112 a barrel.
  • Financials ended the week under pressure with a marginal gain of 0.19% at the Friday close.
  • Technology was among the hardest hit, falling 2.1% for the week with broader retreats in AI-related issues including Nvidia.
  • Utilities stocks saw significant selling pressure, dropping over 4% on Friday alone.
  • Consumer Discretionary and Industrials sectors each experienced declines throughout the week due to reduced consumer confidence and rising energy costs. 

CBOE VIX

The VIX rose as trading anxiety increased, with the VIX up approximately 80% year-to-date. 

  • Friday Close: The VIX ended the week at 26.78, an 11.3% rise.
  • The Weekly High: The Quadruple Witching Friday session saw the VIX at an intraday high of 29.28 approaching a shift into a high-volatility territory.

March 18th Reversal - 2026

Published: 19 March 2026

March 18, 2026, was a difficult day for Wall Street as the major indexes fell sharply following the Federal Reserve FMOC announcement and continuing geopolitical tensions.  The ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude toward $110 per barrel, fueling fears of "stagflation", high inflation paired with slowing growth.

The major averages fell late in the day after the Fed maintained interest rates at 3.50%–3.75% and appeared to signal fewer rate cuts.

  • Energy & Conflict: Ongoing conflict in the Middle East—specifically disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—pushed Brent crude toward $110 per barrel, fueling fears of "stagflation" (high inflation paired with slowing growth).

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose as investors looked for protection against a sudden downturn.

  • Closing: 25.09

  • +12.16% (from prior close 22.37)

Monday Rebound

Published: 16 March 2026

The stock market rallied today, apparently driven by lower oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.  The major U.S. indexes snapped a four-day losing streak to post their best single-session gains in weeks.

After topping $102 per barrel in the morning, U.S. crude oil dropped toward $93. This decline followed reports that some shipping vessels successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, reducing concerns of a total energy blockade.

CBOE VIX 23.51 -13.53%

The VIX opened at 25.88 and trended lower throughout the day, closing at 23.51. However, the index remains elevated compared to its recent average, suggesting "cautious optimism".

Tech and AI Optimism: Megacap tech-led trading as Nvidia gained 1.6% and Meta Platforms rose 2.3%.

Volatility and Friday the 13th - 3/13/2026

Published: 13 March 2026

CBOE VIX

The VIX closed the regular session at 27.24, up nearly 7% for the week. 

  • Monday, March 9: The index rose to 29.49, a 24% jump, as oil prices spiked following military escalations in the Iranian conflict.
  • Mid-Week: Volatility remained elevated, with the VIX holding above 24.00 throughout Tuesday and Wednesday.
  • Friday, March 13: The index opened at 27.85 and reached a daily high of 28.47 before closing for the week slightly lower.
  • Market Status: The VIX futures curve entered backwardation, where near-term contracts were priced higher than longer-dated ones—a rare indicator of extreme market stress. 

CBOE 9-Day Volatility Index (VIX9D)

The VIX9D closed up strongly, closing the week at 24.44, reflecting a 23% increase over the prior five trading days. 

  • Short-Term Sensitivity: the VIX9D reacted more sharply following the threat of a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Comparison: The strong 5-day percentage gain of the VIX9D, in comparison to the standard VIX, suggests that investors are increasingly concerned with near-term market volatility.

The CBOE Volatility Index for March 2–6, 2026

Published: 06 March 2026

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) rose this week, reaching its highest level since October 2025 as geopolitical tensions and jobs data contributed to market uncertainty.

Performance Summary (March 2–6, 2026)

The VIX saw a sharp rise throughout the week, driven by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and concerns over economic stagflation.

  • Weekly High: The index spiked 20% during Friday's session, hitting an intraday high of 29.93.
  • Performance Drivers: Volatility was ramped up by record-breaking gains in oil prices (surging above $90) and a wider-than-expected fall in February payrolls data.
  • Weekly Context: This marked the VIX's highest close since April 2025.

Closing Levels

The VIX ended the week significantly higher than its previous close.

  • Friday Close: The index closed at 24.96 (as of 3:15 PM EST on March 6).
  • Daily Change: It finished the final trading day of the week up approximately 15.96% from the previous week's close of 23.75.

Date

Close

Friday, March 6

24.96

Thursday, March 5

23.75

Wednesday, March 4

21.15

Tuesday, March 3

23.57

Monday, March 2

21.44

  1. Volatility and Conflict with Iran
  2. Corporate Earnings for Q4 2025
  3. VIX at Close - 2/18/2026
  4. VIX at Close - 2/13/2026

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