Volatility and Conflict with Iran
VIX INDEX CBOE: 23.57
+2.13
Mar 3, 3:15 PM CST
Stability in the stock market can be expected to return as traders see a path forward or the conflict with Iran is perceived as contained. Market forecasts depend on the conflict's developments, including diplomatic progress and the severity of hostilities.
- Initial Volatility and Decline: Markets have responded with volatility and decline due to uncertainty and risk potential. Sectors involving travel and leisure have declined, while defense, energy, and gold have experienced upward price movement.
- Sector-Specific Performance:
- Energy and Commodities: Prices rise on anticipation of supply chain disruption, which can boost energy stocks.
- Defense: Companies in the defense and aerospace industries may see gains based on expected increases in military spending.
- Technology and Consumer Staples: These sectors are generally more resilient and could be expected to recover faster or experience less of a downturn.
Corporate Earnings for Q4 2025
The recent US corporate earnings season for Q4 2025 (concluding in February 2026) has been remarkably strong, characterized by high revenue growth and a rare streak of double-digit profit expansion.
As of late February 2026, with approximately 74% of S&P 500 companies having reported:
Key Profitability Metrics
- Earnings Growth: The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate is 13.2%. If this holds, it marks the 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth for the S&P 500.
- Revenue Growth: Revenue is up 9.0% year-over-year. This is the highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2022, signaling robust demand despite economic headwinds.
- Beat Rates: While companies are still beating expectations, the enthusiasm is cooling slightly. Roughly 74% of companies have reported EPS above estimates, which is just below the 5-year average of 78%.
Standout Sectors
Profitability this season has been driven primarily by a few heavy-hitting sectors:
- Information Technology: The undisputed leader, seeing earnings growth above 20% fueled by continued AI infrastructure spending and software demand.
- Communication Services: Boosted by massive revenue beats from giants like Alphabet and Meta.
- Health Care: A significant contributor to index-wide revenue growth, led by companies like Eli Lilly and Cigna.
- Financials: Benefited from a major revival in Wall Street fees, with global M&A volume hitting nearly $5 trillion in 2025.
VIX at Close - 2/18/2026
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the CBOE 9-Day Volatility Index (VIX9D) both closed lower today as market volatility fell from previous sessions.
Regular Trading for February 18, 2026
| Index | Symbol | Value | Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 19.62 | -3.30% |
| CBOE 9-Day Volatility Index | VIX9D | 19.08 | -6.06% |
VIX at Close - 2/13/2026
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed at 20.82 on Friday, February 13, 2026. This modestly elevated figure signals higher-than-average implied volatility, indicating investors anticipate significant near-term market fluctuation.
VIX at the Close - 2/12/2026
For the close of normal trading, Thursday, February 12, 2026, the volatility indices ended as follows:
Index Closing Values
| Index | Symbol | Value | Change |
| CBOE Volatility Index | VIX | 20.82 | +17.96% |
| CBOE 9-Day Volatility Index | VIX9D | 19.80 | +39.63% |
